After months of primary elections, campaign events and fundraising, the mid-term elections finally arrive in which this Tuesday the balance of power in Washington DC and 36 states is defined.
Republicans expect a massive “red wave” with which they hope to take control of both houses of the federal Congress, as well as dozens of executive positions at the state level.
Meanwhile, amid widespread concern about the economy, crime and the leadership of President Joe Biden, Democrats seek to defend their narrow majorities in Congress fueled by opposition to the Supreme Court’s repeal of abortion rights. and the argument for the defense of democracy.
Due to the close races and the expected lengthy vote count, it could be days or weeks before the final result is known in several key races.
Here’s what to watch for on Election Day
1. Will the “red wave” expected by the Republicans be confirmed?
Polls suggest Republicans are expected to make significant gains in these midterm elections. Something that, on the other hand, is usual: the party that occupies the White House usually suffers significant losses in the mid-term elections.
This year, with inflation hitting the pockets of many hard, does not seem to be an exception. What remains to be seen is whether we are experiencing a little red wave or the tsunami that conservatives dream of.
Many expect the Republican Party to take control of the House of Representatives, for which they need a net gain of five seats. The Senate seems more competitive, but a senator is enough to recover it.
2. The post effect Roe vs. Wade
Democrats pinned much of their hope on voter reaction to the Supreme Court’s decision in June to withdraw constitutional protection for abortion rights.
But more than four months have passed since the decision to overturn the precedent of Roe v. Wade, the matter seems to have fizzled out a bit. At least the candidates no longer devote as much space to this issue as they do to the economy, Medicare, Social Security, etc.
3. Are Hispanics still turning right?
Democrats’ poor performance among 2020 Hispanic voters may be repeated.
The Republican Party hopes to win up to three representatives in the Rio Grande Valley, in southern Texas, where the issue of migration and the border are central.
Also in Miami-Dade, a Democratic bastion for the last 20 years when there are 1.5 million Hispanics of voting age, Republicans hope to make significant progress. Without that county, Democrats have no way of winning Florida, not even in the presidential races.
In Arizona and Nevada, the Hispanic vote will also be crucial in two key races for Biden’s party to maintain control of the Senate.
4. How are Trump’s candidates doing?
Former President Donald Trump remains very popular with Republican Party voters. This Tuesday, it is tested whether this electoral strength is reflected in the electorate in general.
And although Trump is not on any ballot, there are numerous candidates for whom he has expressed his support and who won the primary against others backed by the more traditional Republican leadership.
If some of the most high-profile do not do well, it will be reflected in some way in the possible candidacy of Trump for the presidential elections of 2024.
5. The possible impact on the 2024 presidential elections
After the elections this Tuesday, the presidential race of 2024 will begin to be outlined.
A boisterous night on the Democratic side may shake the idea of a Biden re-election bid as much as it will lead Trump to take credit and launch his candidacy.
If the Republican deniers of Biden’s electoral victory in 2020 manage to reach key positions in the management of the elections in these mid-term elections, they could have an important role in the development of the